WEATHERDUCK
WEATHER DUCK
Forecasts:

WeatherDuck

Weather Duck

We currently working towards specilised Lake District, Snowdonia and Scottish Mountain forecasts. Please see usefull links below in the mean time:

https://www.thebmc.co.uk/en/lake-district-winter-conditions

https://www.winterclimbingforecasts.co.uk/

Tue 07:00

Inversion Likelihood

65% Good
Best window 18:00 – 07:00 (Fri night)
Near-saturated low levels Light winds
Cloud base ~111m Cloud top ~1457m
Confidence: High

Score Breakdown (peak hour)

Dew Depression
24/30
Inversion
22/25
Wind
19/20
Dry Above
10/10
Pressure
4/8
Moisture
3/5
Season
1/2
NightAvg 15:00 18:00 21:00 00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00
T–W 26% 27% 19% 24% 28% 31%
W–T 27% 19% 27% 29% 23% 39%
T–F 43% 51% 44% 40% 40% 39%
F–S 65% 49% 58% 60% 77% 83%
S–S 56% 41% 50% 60% 63% 66%
S–M 53% 43% 57% 62% 53% 48%

This score analyses 7 atmospheric factors — dew point depression, inversion strength, boundary wind speed, dry air above, pressure stability, moisture availability, and season — to estimate the chance of a visible cloud inversion from mountain summits.

Uses UKMO atmospheric profile data (temperature & dew point at 19 altitude levels) alongside surface forecasts. Actual conditions depend on local terrain.

80%+ Excellent
60–79% Good
40–59% Moderate
20–39% Low
0–19% Very Low

Atmospheric Profile (Skew-T)

Atmospheric profile data for Keswick,GB
Tue 07:00

Model profile · Keswick,GB

How to read this diagram

A Skew-T diagram shows how temperature and moisture change with altitude through the atmosphere. It's the same type of chart used by meteorologists and pilots.

The Lines

  • Red line = Temperature at each altitude
  • Green line = Dew point (how moist the air is)
  • Blue dashed line = Freezing level (0°C)

What to Look For

  • Blue shading between the lines = near-saturation (T–Td < 3°C) — cloud or fog forming at that level
  • Lines far apart = dry air — clear skies at that level
  • Orange shading = temperature inversion — a warm lid trapping air below. When annotated as "Cloud INV", there's also moisture trapped below (the cloud sea effect), with estimated cloud base and top heights shown
  • Temperature going right (warmer) as you go up = inversion layer
  • Wind colour: green = calm (≤3 mph), yellow = moderate, red = strong (>11 mph) — calm winds favour inversions

Cloud Inversions

The classic "above the clouds" mountain experience happens when:

  • There's a temperature inversion at 400–1500m altitude
  • Air is moist below the inversion (red & green lines close) — cloud trapped there
  • Air is dry above the inversion (lines spread apart) — clear summit views
  • Winds are light (not mixing everything up)

The Numbers

  • Left axis = pressure in hPa (higher = lower altitude) with approximate height
  • Bottom axis = temperature in °C (skewed to the right)
  • Right column = wind direction and speed at each level

Data is from the UKMO (Met Office) forecast model via Open-Meteo. Use the time slider to see how conditions evolve.