HISTORICAL CLOUD-INVERSION EVIDENCE
Today's production blob geometry applied to retained historical model inputs—with strong matches, weaker signals and misses kept together.
The purple point marks the observed location. Blue means Very likely, green Likely and amber Possible.
These 62 historical cloud-inversion replays use valid-time model inputs. They are not forecasts issued before every event and not an overall accuracy rate.
Important limitation: historical daily scores cannot prove the live email rule that requires two consecutive forecast updates. The complete forecast-proof reports are kept separately.
REPLAY GROUP · 26 EVENTS
26 events where the observation point sits inside a Very likely production-geometry blob in this historical replay.
REPLAY GROUP · 17 EVENTS
17 events where the observation point sits inside a Likely production-geometry blob.
REPLAY GROUP · 13 EVENTS
13 events where the observation point sits inside a Possible production-geometry blob.
REPLAY GROUP · 6 EVENTS
6 geographically varied, high-confidence observations where today's production geometry does not place a blob over the observation point. They remain visible because misses and limitations belong in an honest evidence record.
READ THE RECORD FAIRLY
The observation date and source describe what was seen. Each map applies the current WeatherDuck blob formula and the live 25 km area geometry to the retained historical valid-time input. A direct match means the location point falls inside that coloured area; it does not prove every nearby summit or valley experienced the same conditions.
Possible, Likely and Very likely are model bands, not calibrated percentage probabilities. No-direct-match events remain in the archive so the record does not hide weaker outcomes.