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Historical cloud inversion evidence

Historical cloud inversions. 62 events to explore.

Explore past inversion mornings using today’s forecast method. These are historical replays, not forecasts issued before the events. Matches and misses are both included.

Read verified forecasts How to read this archive

The purple point marks the observed location. Blue means Very likely, green Likely and amber Possible.

These 62 historical cloud inversion replays use valid-time model inputs. They are not forecasts issued before every event and not an overall accuracy rate.

Important limitation: historical daily scores cannot prove the live email rule that requires two consecutive forecast updates. The complete forecast-proof reports are kept separately.

Replay group

Very likely direct matches

26 events

26 events where the observation point sits inside a Very likely production-geometry blob in this historical replay.

Historical cloud inversion replay map for Simonside / Rothbury Common, Northumberland on 24 April 2026, with a purple location marker

· Very likely direct match

Simonside / Rothbury Common, Northumberland

Map replay
Historical cloud inversion replay map for Lake District – Carl Side and Skiddaw on 14 October 2025, with a purple location marker

· Very likely direct match

Lake District – Carl Side and Skiddaw

Observation confidence 8/10
Historical cloud inversion replay map for Lake District – Skiddaw on 12 October 2025, with a purple location marker

· Very likely direct match

Lake District – Skiddaw

Observation confidence 10/10
Historical cloud inversion replay map for Helvellyn summit on 27 December 2024, with a purple location marker

· Very likely direct match

Helvellyn summit

Observation confidence 9/10
Historical cloud inversion replay map for Welsh 3000ers – Elidir Fawr, Crib Goch, Carnedd Ugain, Eryri on 31 October 2024, with a purple location marker

· Very likely direct match

Welsh 3000ers – Elidir Fawr, Crib Goch, Carnedd Ugain, Eryri

Observation confidence 9/10 View original evidence source

Replay group

Likely direct matches

17 events

17 events where the observation point sits inside a Likely production-geometry blob.

Historical cloud inversion replay map for Pen y Fan, Bannau Brycheiniog on 14 October 2025, with a purple location marker

· Likely direct match

Pen y Fan, Bannau Brycheiniog

Observation confidence 8/10
Historical cloud inversion replay map for Fisherfield / Beinn a' Chlaidheimh, An Teallach view on 16 August 2025, with a purple location marker

· Likely direct match

Fisherfield / Beinn a' Chlaidheimh, An Teallach view

Observation confidence 7/10 View Walkhighlands report
Historical cloud inversion replay map for Helvellyn summit on 26 December 2024, with a purple location marker

· Likely direct match

Helvellyn summit

Observation confidence 7/10

Replay group

Possible direct matches

13 events

13 events where the observation point sits inside a Possible production-geometry blob.

Historical cloud inversion replay map for Helvellyn summit on 8 November 2024, with a purple location marker

· Possible direct match

Helvellyn summit

Observation confidence 8/10
Historical cloud inversion replay map for Cairngorms (Aviemore area) on 21 September 2024, with a purple location marker

· Possible direct match

Cairngorms (Aviemore area)

Observation confidence 4/10

Replay group

No direct match in this replay

6 events

6 geographically varied, high-confidence observations where today's production geometry does not place a blob over the observation point. They remain visible because misses and limitations belong in an honest evidence record.

Read the record fairly

How to read this archive

The observation date and source describe what was seen. Each map applies the current WeatherDuck blob formula and the live 25 km area geometry to the retained historical valid-time input. A direct match means the location point falls inside that coloured area; it does not prove every nearby summit or valley experienced the same conditions.

Possible, Likely and Very likely are model bands, not calibrated percentage probabilities. No-direct-match events remain in the archive so the record does not hide weaker outcomes.

Evidence into action

Looking for the next inversion?

Evidence tells you how earlier signals behaved. Trip planning should always start with the newest forecast, cloud layers, wind and mountain conditions.

Check the current cloud inversion forecast